What inaction actually costs
Most people don't lose wealth by making terrible investments. They lose it by doing nothing, or by doing the wrong thing at the wrong time.
The term deposit trap
The typical self-directed investor holds a meaningful share of long-term capital in term deposits. It feels safe. After tax and inflation, it is one of the most expensive habits in New Zealand investing.
Consider $500,000 of long-term capital, held for ten years. The figures below use the long-run averages: term deposit rates around 3.3%, inflation around 2.5%, and a diversified growth portfolio returning around 6.5% before fund costs and tax. All figures are in today's dollars, so the comparison reflects what you can actually buy with the money at the end of ten years, not the nominal balance.
Keeping $500,000 in term deposits over the next decade is likely to cost you roughly $165,000 in real wealth, compared with a diversified growth portfolio.
$500,000 over ten years, in today's dollars:
- Term deposits, interest taxed at 39% RWT, after inflation: around $476,700. A real loss of about $23,300.
- Diversified growth portfolio, low-cost build in a PIE structure, after fund costs and tax, after inflation: around $642,300. A real gain of about $142,300.
- The gap over ten years: around $165,600 in today's dollars.
Long-run averages used: 6-month term deposit 3.3% (RBNZ 10-year average), CPI inflation 2.5% (RBNZ target band midpoint), diversified growth portfolio 6.5% gross long-run, fund costs 0.4%, blended PIE tax drag 1.0%. RWT at 39% applied to term deposit interest. Illustration only. Past returns are not a prediction of future returns. Real outcomes vary year to year and depend on circumstances, contribution levels, fees, and tax treatment.
Cash is not always inappropriate. Short-term needs belong in cash. The point is long-term capital in cash quietly loses ground every year, and most investors only notice once the gap has compounded into something they cannot easily close.
The timing trap
When markets drop, people panic and sell. When markets rise, they pile back in. Research into New Zealand investor behaviour shows this pattern repeating through every major market event of the past decade: investors pull funds out near the bottom, then return after the recovery is already underway. Over a recent ten-year period, an investor in New Zealand shares who missed just the ten best-performing days would have earned roughly 3.5% less per year than someone who simply stayed put. On a $500,000 portfolio, the difference compounds to well over $100,000 across a decade.
The "I'll get to it" trap
Five years of procrastination on a $100,000 lump sum, even at modest long-term returns, can cost six figures by retirement. Not because term deposits are bad for short-term needs, but because every year your long-term capital sits uninvested is a year of compounding you never get back.
Professional investment management solves all three. Your portfolio is fully invested from day one, properly diversified, and managed by someone whose job is to keep you on track when instinct tells you to do otherwise.
The figures referenced above are drawn from independent research and publicly available market data. They are illustrative and are not predictions of future returns. Actual outcomes vary based on individual circumstances, contribution levels, fees, and tax.